BTC Flow Analysis — March 09, 2021 CHOP
Tuesday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 2,194,398 trades
Summary
Bitcoin climbed +4.8% on Tuesday, March 09, 2021, closing at $54,884 as sellers controlled aggregate flow with 1,634 BTC of net pressure.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
Flow said sell, price said buy. The -0.37 correlation between cumulative flow and return tells the story: someone was absorbing the selling quietly while price rose +4.79%.
The big players were active all day. 15 bars of outsized trades (9.1σ peak) from 00:36–20:29 UTC, adding 606 BTC of selling pressure on top of the broader selling flow.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
US traders set the tone. 65% of directional flow — 1,468 BTC of selling — came from that single session.
Session returns: Asia +2.24%, Europe +2.30%, US +0.19%. Europe led the move.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | 2.24% | -478 BTC | 21% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | 2.30% | 312 BTC | 14% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | 0.19% | -1468 BTC | 65% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
A statistical outlier: +4.79% return sits at +2.0σ from the chop-regime average of +0.10%. Days like this are rare within this regime.
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