BTC Flow Analysis — May 11, 2021 CHOP
Tuesday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 1,911,480 trades
Summary
Bitcoin edged higher (+1.53%) on Tuesday, May 11, 2021, closing at $56,670 as sellers controlled aggregate flow with 2,568 BTC of net pressure.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
Flow said sell, price said buy. The -0.76 correlation between cumulative flow and return tells the story: someone was absorbing the selling quietly while price rose +1.53%.
The big players were active all day. 13 bars of outsized trades (5.3σ peak) from 02:01–21:30 UTC, adding 112 BTC of selling pressure on top of the broader selling flow.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Session returns: Asia -0.14%, Europe +0.02%, US +1.65%. US led the move.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | -0.14% | -1069 BTC | 42% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | 0.02% | -573 BTC | 22% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | 1.65% | -926 BTC | 36% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
The market was 3 day(s) into a new chop regime, having transitioned from bear. Early-regime days often carry residual momentum from the prior period.
Net flow of -2,568 BTC was elevated at -1.7σ vs the chop-regime average of -670 BTC.
The selling streak extended to 6 days. Streaks this long suggest a structural flow, not just intraday traders flipping positions.
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