BTC Flow Analysis — May 15, 2021 BEAR
Saturday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 2,286,791 trades
Summary
May 15, 2021: Bitcoin dropped 6.2% in a sharp selloff. The 4,922 BTC of net selling flow at $46,763 told a clear story — sellers were in charge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
The big players were active all day. 32 bars of outsized trades (7.5σ peak) from 00:49–23:04 UTC, adding 326 BTC of selling pressure on top of the broader selling flow.
Net selling for 10 straight days. Whether it's institutional positioning or sentiment-driven, the directional bias was persistent.
The 8.3% intraday range ($46,555 – $50,700) tells the story of a market in flux. Both sides had their moments.
Price followed flow faithfully (correlation: 0.84). When you see this level of alignment, it means one side is in control and the other isn't even fighting.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Breaking it down by session: Asia -2.76%, Europe +1.08%, US -4.56%. US stood out.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | -2.76% | -1242 BTC | 25% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | 1.08% | -1173 BTC | 24% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -4.56% | -2507 BTC | 51% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
A -1.9σ day — selling pressure exceeded the typical bear-regime flow (-1,189 BTC) by a notable margin.
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