BTC Flow Analysis — May 18, 2021 BEAR
Tuesday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 2,561,165 trades
Summary
May 18, 2021: Bitcoin gave back 1.58%. The 5,574 BTC of net selling flow at $42,850 told a clear story — sellers were in charge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
The big players were active all day. 24 bars of outsized trades (8.9σ peak) from 00:29–23:38 UTC, adding 328 BTC of selling pressure on top of the broader selling flow.
The 8.2% intraday range ($42,250 – $45,799) tells the story of a market in flux. Both sides had their moments.
Price followed flow faithfully (correlation: 0.82). When you see this level of alignment, it means one side is in control and the other isn't even fighting.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Breaking it down by session: Asia +3.75%, Europe -3.28%, US -1.93%. Asia stood out.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | 3.75% | -1962 BTC | 35% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | -3.28% | -700 BTC | 13% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -1.93% | -2912 BTC | 52% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
Flow conviction was unusually strong: 5,574 BTC net selling, registering at -2.1σ relative to other bear-regime days. This wasn't noise — it was a directional statement.
The selling streak extended to 13 days. Streaks this long suggest a structural flow, not just intraday traders flipping positions.
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