BTC Flow Analysis — May 20, 2021 BEAR
Thursday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 4,269,898 trades
Summary
Bitcoin exploded +10.5% higher on Thursday, May 20, 2021, closing at $40,527 as sellers controlled aggregate flow with 2,683 BTC of net pressure.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
The big players were active all day. 15 bars of outsized trades (6.6σ peak) from 03:10–18:58 UTC, adding 49 BTC of selling pressure on top of the broader selling flow.
Day 15 of unbroken net selling. The market had a directional lean and wasn't letting go.
From $34,850 to $42,452 — a 20.7% range that forced both bulls and bears to respect the volatility.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
US traders set the tone. 80% of directional flow — 2,141 BTC of selling — came from that single session.
Session returns: Asia +8.97%, Europe +4.39%, US -2.86%. Asia led the move.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | 8.97% | -91 BTC | 3% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | 4.39% | -451 BTC | 17% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -2.86% | -2141 BTC | 80% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
A statistical outlier: +10.51% return sits at +3.0σ from the bear-regime average of -0.27%. Days like this are rare within this regime.
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