BTC Flow Analysis — May 21, 2021 BEAR
Friday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 3,993,336 trades
Summary
On Friday, May 21, 2021, Bitcoin plunged -8.1% to $37,252. Net flow: -14,096 BTC — sellers had the edge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
The big players were active all day. 34 bars of outsized trades (6.8σ peak) from 00:11–20:29 UTC, adding 1,380 BTC of selling pressure on top of the broader selling flow.
Net selling for 16 straight days. Whether it's institutional positioning or sentiment-driven, the directional bias was persistent.
A volatile day: 21.5% range from $33,488 to $42,200. Wide ranges like this create opportunities but also traps for directional traders.
A clean, flow-driven day. The 0.90 correlation between cumulative flow and price means selling pressure was the dominant force — no hidden passive flow muddying the signal.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Strip out US and the day would look flat. That session alone contributed 71% of the net flow (9,985 BTC selling).
Across sessions: Asia -1.68%, Europe +3.19%, US -9.39% — with US doing the heavy lifting.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | -1.68% | -2032 BTC | 14% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | 3.19% | -2079 BTC | 15% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -9.39% | -9985 BTC | 71% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
Flow conviction was unusually strong: 14,096 BTC net selling, registering at -5.4σ relative to other bear-regime days. This wasn't noise — it was a directional statement.
At -2.1σ from the regime mean, this -8.08% move was an outlier within the bear period (avg -0.27%).
Related Days
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