BTC Flow Analysis — December 25, 2021 BEAR
Saturday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 766,979 trades
Summary
On Saturday, December 25, 2021, Bitcoin drifted lower (-0.83%) to $50,400. Net flow: +721 BTC — buyers had the edge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
The -0.39 flow-price correlation reveals a mismatch — buyers crossed the spread aggressively, but price still fell -0.83%. Passive supply overwhelmed active demand.
Sustained large-player buying throughout the day. 35 bars with trade sizes 3σ+ above normal (peak: 9.5σ), spread across 00:11–23:52 UTC. The 444 BTC of whale flow reinforced the day's buying bias.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Across sessions: Asia +0.20%, Europe -0.14%, US -0.88% — with US doing the heavy lifting.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | 0.20% | 333 BTC | 46% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | -0.14% | 231 BTC | 32% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -0.88% | 157 BTC | 22% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
In retrospect, the bear regime was ending. CHOP conditions were 0 day(s) away.
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