BTC Flow Analysis — December 30, 2021 BEAR
Thursday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 910,157 trades
Summary
Bitcoin ticked up +1.41% on Thursday, December 30, 2021, closing at $47,121 as sellers controlled aggregate flow with 579 BTC of net pressure.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
Flow said sell, price said buy. The -0.65 correlation between cumulative flow and return tells the story: someone was absorbing the selling quietly while price rose +1.41%.
Large players were on the wrong side — or the patient side. 20 bars of outsized trade sizes (peak 7.8σ) showed net buying, but price moved against them. Either they were accumulating into weakness or got caught.
Net selling for 3 straight days. Whether it's institutional positioning or sentiment-driven, the directional bias was persistent.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Session returns: Asia +1.11%, Europe +0.73%, US -0.42%. Asia led the move.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | 1.11% | -135 BTC | 23% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | 0.73% | -286 BTC | 49% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -0.42% | -159 BTC | 27% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
The market was 3 day(s) into a new bear regime, having transitioned from chop. Early-regime days often carry residual momentum from the prior period.
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