BTC Flow Analysis — September 30, 2022 CHOP
Friday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 6,254,203 trades
Summary
September 30, 2022: Bitcoin slipped 0.86%. The 4,263 BTC of net selling flow at $19,423 told a clear story — sellers were in charge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
8 bars of outsized trades (peak 4.7σ) appeared between 03:12–23:46 UTC, with whale flow netting 192 BTC of buying.
Most of the action happened during US hours, which accounted for 83% of the day's net flow (4,755 BTC selling). The rest of the day was a footnote.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Breaking it down by session: Asia -0.10%, Europe -0.50%, US -0.25%. Europe stood out.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | -0.10% | 721 BTC | 13% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | -0.50% | -228 BTC | 4% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -0.25% | -4755 BTC | 83% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
The 4,263 BTC of net selling was extreme by any measure (-2.8σ vs chop-regime average). The market's typical flow balance broke down.
Volume ran hot: 444,323 BTC traded, +4.4σ above the chop-regime average. High volume days tend to carry more signal.
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