BTC Flow Analysis — November 09, 2022 BEAR
Wednesday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 13,605,474 trades
Summary
Bitcoin closed at $15,923 on November 09, 2022 after dropped 14.1% in a sharp selloff. Aggressor-side flow netted -14,521 BTC, favoring sellers.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
Sustained large-player selling throughout the day. 18 bars with trade sizes 3σ+ above normal (peak: 5.8σ), spread across 01:35–21:12 UTC. The 500 BTC of whale flow reinforced the day's selling bias.
A volatile day: 16.2% range from $15,588 to $18,588. Wide ranges like this create opportunities but also traps for directional traders.
Price followed flow faithfully (correlation: 0.96). When you see this level of alignment, it means one side is in control and the other isn't even fighting.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
The US session drove 66% of the day's directional flow, with 9,633 BTC of net selling. The other two sessions were comparatively quiet.
The US session posted the largest move. Full breakdown: Asia -1.64%, Europe -3.60%, US -9.44%.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | -1.64% | -3481 BTC | 24% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | -3.60% | -1407 BTC | 10% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -9.44% | -9633 BTC | 66% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
At -5.5σ from the bear-regime average, this was one of the most intense selling days in the period — 14,521 BTC of net pressure overwhelmed the typical flow pattern.
Even by bear-regime standards, -14.14% was extreme — -3.8σ from the -0.27% average. This wasn't a normal bear day.
Day 1 of a fresh bear regime. The market had just flipped from chop, and the new character was still establishing itself.
Trading activity surged to +5.8σ above the regime norm (731,927 BTC). When volume spikes like this, the flow data carries more weight.
The selling streak extended to 4 days. Streaks this long suggest a structural flow, not just intraday traders flipping positions.
Related Days
Days with similar flow patterns and market conditions.
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