BTC Flow Analysis — November 10, 2022 BEAR
Thursday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 12,719,887 trades
Summary
On Thursday, November 10, 2022, Bitcoin surged +10.5% to $17,601. Net flow: -2,651 BTC — sellers had the edge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
Someone was moving size. 9 bars between 13:16–13:50 UTC registered trade sizes 3σ+ above normal (peak: 4.0σ), pushing 160 BTC net selling.
The 15.4% intraday range ($15,754 – $18,199) tells the story of a market in flux. Both sides had their moments.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Strip out Asia and the day would look flat. That session alone contributed 65% of the net flow (5,806 BTC selling).
Morning and afternoon traded like two different markets. Sellers led early (-5,695 BTC), buyers dominated late (+3,044 BTC).
Across sessions: Asia +5.21%, Europe +5.36%, US -0.30% — with Europe doing the heavy lifting.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | 5.21% | -5806 BTC | 65% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | 5.36% | 2247 BTC | 25% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -0.30% | 909 BTC | 10% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
At +3.0σ from the regime mean, this +10.54% move was an outlier within the bear period (avg -0.27%).
The market was 2 day(s) into a new bear regime, having transitioned from chop. Early-regime days often carry residual momentum from the prior period.
Unusually heavy volume at 608,448 BTC — +4.7σ above the bear-regime baseline. The market was paying attention.
The selling streak extended to 5 days. Streaks this long suggest a structural flow, not just intraday traders flipping positions.
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