BTC Flow Analysis — February 09, 2023 BULL
Thursday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 9,784,291 trades
Summary
On Thursday, February 09, 2023, Bitcoin plunged -5.1% to $21,796. Net flow: -4,275 BTC — sellers had the edge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
The big players were active all day. 18 bars of outsized trades (9.1σ peak) from 02:55–21:30 UTC, adding 1,152 BTC of selling pressure on top of the broader selling flow.
A clean, flow-driven day. The 0.95 correlation between cumulative flow and price means selling pressure was the dominant force — no hidden passive flow muddying the signal.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Across sessions: Asia -1.24%, Europe +0.31%, US -4.18% — with US doing the heavy lifting.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | -1.24% | -1775 BTC | 42% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | 0.31% | -113 BTC | 3% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -4.18% | -2387 BTC | 56% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
Net selling hit 4,275 BTC, landing -2.5σ outside the bull-regime norm. Days with this level of one-sided flow have historically marked inflection points within the regime.
The bull regime was running out of road — 2 day(s) before the market shifted to chop. The transition was already underway in hindsight.
Unusually heavy volume at 402,895 BTC — +4.2σ above the bull-regime baseline. The market was paying attention.
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