BTC Flow Analysis — March 02, 2023 CHOP
Thursday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 7,435,815 trades
Summary
Bitcoin drifted lower (-0.70%) on Thursday, March 02, 2023, closing at $23,465 as sellers controlled aggregate flow with 271 BTC of net pressure.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
Sustained large-player selling throughout the day. 12 bars with trade sizes 3σ+ above normal (peak: 5.1σ), spread across 01:39–16:17 UTC. The 146 BTC of whale flow reinforced the day's selling bias.
Flow reversed midday. The first 12 hours belonged to sellers (-617 BTC), but buyers erased that and then some (+346 BTC) in the back half.
Flow and price moved in lockstep (correlation: 0.83). Aggressor-side selling translated directly into price movement with minimal resistance.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Session returns: Asia -1.01%, Europe -0.35%, US +0.67%. Asia led the move.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | -1.01% | -461 BTC | 36% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | -0.35% | -319 BTC | 25% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | 0.67% | 508 BTC | 39% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
This was near the start of a chop regime (day 2), with the bull regime barely in the rearview mirror.
Trading activity surged to +2.0σ above the regime norm (239,315 BTC). When volume spikes like this, the flow data carries more weight.
Related Days
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