BTC Flow Analysis — March 17, 2023 BEAR
Friday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 13,113,359 trades
Summary
March 17, 2023: Bitcoin surged +9.6%. The 11,585 BTC of net buying flow at $27,395 told a clear story — buyers were in charge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
Sustained large-player buying throughout the day. 11 bars with trade sizes 3σ+ above normal (peak: 4.8σ), spread across 00:13–14:43 UTC. The 826 BTC of whale flow reinforced the day's buying bias.
Net buying for 6 straight days. Whether it's institutional positioning or sentiment-driven, the directional bias was persistent.
From $24,890 to $27,757 — a 11.5% range that forced both bulls and bears to respect the volatility.
Flow and price moved in lockstep (correlation: 0.96). Aggressor-side buying translated directly into price movement with minimal resistance.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Breaking it down by session: Asia +4.24%, Europe +1.51%, US +3.56%. Asia stood out.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | 4.24% | 2893 BTC | 25% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | 1.51% | 4077 BTC | 35% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | 3.56% | 4615 BTC | 40% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
The 11,585 BTC of net buying was extreme by any measure (+4.4σ vs bear-regime average). The market's typical flow balance broke down.
Even by bear-regime standards, +9.59% was extreme — +2.7σ from the -0.27% average. This wasn't a normal bear day.
Trading activity surged to +4.8σ above the regime norm (624,461 BTC). When volume spikes like this, the flow data carries more weight.
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