BTC Flow Analysis — April 19, 2023 CHOP
Wednesday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 1,699,891 trades
Summary
April 19, 2023: Bitcoin crashed -5.2%. The 3,640 BTC of net selling flow at $28,797 told a clear story — sellers were in charge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
52 bars of outsized trades (peak 11.7σ) appeared between 00:18–23:58 UTC, with whale flow netting 469 BTC of buying.
Flow and price moved in lockstep (correlation: 0.92). Aggressor-side selling translated directly into price movement with minimal resistance.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Breaking it down by session: Asia -0.99%, Europe -2.48%, US -1.83%. Europe stood out.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | -0.99% | -690 BTC | 19% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | -2.48% | -821 BTC | 23% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -1.83% | -2130 BTC | 59% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
Net selling hit 3,640 BTC, landing -2.4σ outside the chop-regime norm. Days with this level of one-sided flow have historically marked inflection points within the regime.
At -2.3σ from the regime mean, this -5.21% move was an outlier within the chop period (avg +0.10%).
The market was 3 day(s) into a new chop regime, having transitioned from bull. Early-regime days often carry residual momentum from the prior period.
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