BTC Flow Analysis — June 16, 2023 BEAR
Friday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 926,194 trades
Summary
Bitcoin climbed +2.9% on Friday, June 16, 2023, closing at $26,345 as sellers controlled aggregate flow with 3,486 BTC of net pressure.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
Flow said sell, price said buy. The -0.88 correlation between cumulative flow and return tells the story: someone was absorbing the selling quietly while price rose +2.92%.
The big players were active all day. 23 bars of outsized trades (6.3σ peak) from 00:34–23:28 UTC, adding 17 BTC of selling pressure on top of the broader selling flow.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Session returns: Asia -0.24%, Europe -0.17%, US +3.34%. US led the move.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | -0.24% | -776 BTC | 22% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | -0.17% | -674 BTC | 19% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | 3.34% | -2035 BTC | 58% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
The bear regime was running out of road — 2 day(s) before the market shifted to chop. The transition was already underway in hindsight.
The selling streak extended to 10 days. Streaks this long suggest a structural flow, not just intraday traders flipping positions.
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