BTC Flow Analysis — September 12, 2023 BEAR
Tuesday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 1,047,056 trades
Summary
On Tuesday, September 12, 2023, Bitcoin climbed +2.7% to $25,840. Net flow: -993 BTC — sellers had the edge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
Despite persistent sell-side aggression (flow-price correlation -0.32), price rose +2.69%. This divergence typically signals strong passive demand — buyers who don't need to cross the spread.
Whale-sized trades (24 bars above 3σ, peak 7.4σ) pushed 179 BTC of net buying between 00:14–22:52 UTC — while price went the other way. Possible accumulation, possible pain.
Day 14 of unbroken net selling. The market had a directional lean and wasn't letting go.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Strip out US and the day would look flat. That session alone contributed 63% of the net flow (1,015 BTC selling).
Morning and afternoon traded like two different markets. Buyers led early (+54 BTC), sellers dominated late (-1,048 BTC).
Across sessions: Asia +2.62%, Europe +1.75%, US -1.66% — with Asia doing the heavy lifting.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | 2.62% | 315 BTC | 19% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | 1.75% | -293 BTC | 18% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -1.66% | -1015 BTC | 63% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
In retrospect, the bear regime was ending. CHOP conditions were 1 day(s) away.
Related Days
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