BTC Flow Analysis — October 18, 2023 CHOP
Wednesday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 1,215,235 trades
Summary
October 18, 2023: Bitcoin went nowhere. The 982 BTC of net selling flow at $28,320 told a clear story — sellers were in charge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
The big players were active all day. 28 bars of outsized trades (11.1σ peak) from 00:46–23:22 UTC, adding 137 BTC of selling pressure on top of the broader selling flow.
A clean, flow-driven day. The 0.84 correlation between cumulative flow and price means selling pressure was the dominant force — no hidden passive flow muddying the signal.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Breaking it down by session: Asia +0.35%, Europe -0.59%, US -0.02%. Europe stood out.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | 0.35% | -26 BTC | 3% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | -0.59% | -452 BTC | 46% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -0.02% | -503 BTC | 51% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
In retrospect, the chop regime was ending. BULL conditions were 2 day(s) away.
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