BTC Flow Analysis — December 31, 2023 CHOP
Sunday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 1,016,484 trades
Summary
On Sunday, December 31, 2023, Bitcoin edged higher (+0.34%) to $42,284. Net flow: +408 BTC — buyers had the edge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
20 bars of outsized trades (peak 7.6σ) appeared between 00:29–23:49 UTC, with whale flow netting 30 BTC of selling.
Flow and price moved in lockstep (correlation: 0.89). Aggressor-side buying translated directly into price movement with minimal resistance.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Strip out Asia and the day would look flat. That session alone contributed 65% of the net flow (711 BTC buying).
Morning and afternoon traded like two different markets. Buyers led early (+923 BTC), sellers dominated late (-515 BTC).
Across sessions: Asia +0.94%, Europe -0.18%, US -0.41% — with Asia doing the heavy lifting.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | 0.94% | 711 BTC | 65% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | -0.18% | 41 BTC | 4% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -0.41% | -344 BTC | 31% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
This was near the start of a chop regime (day 1), with the bull regime barely in the rearview mirror.
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