BTC Flow Analysis — April 12, 2024 CHOP
Friday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 2,496,617 trades
Summary
April 12, 2024: Bitcoin sold off -4.1%. The 4,201 BTC of net selling flow at $67,117 told a clear story — sellers were in charge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
18 bars of outsized trades (peak 9.0σ) appeared between 00:11–16:15 UTC, with whale flow netting 4 BTC of buying.
Most of the action happened during US hours, which accounted for 73% of the day's net flow (3,051 BTC selling). The rest of the day was a footnote.
Day 4 of unbroken net selling. The market had a directional lean and wasn't letting go.
From $65,087 to $71,227 — a 8.8% range that forced both bulls and bears to respect the volatility.
Flow and price moved in lockstep (correlation: 0.98). Aggressor-side selling translated directly into price movement with minimal resistance.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Breaking it down by session: Asia +1.08%, Europe -1.24%, US -3.97%. US stood out.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | 1.08% | -87 BTC | 2% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | -1.24% | -1063 BTC | 25% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -3.97% | -3051 BTC | 73% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
Net selling hit 4,201 BTC, landing -2.8σ outside the chop-regime norm. Days with this level of one-sided flow have historically marked inflection points within the regime.
In retrospect, the chop regime was ending. BEAR conditions were 0 day(s) away.
Related Days
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