BTC Flow Analysis — May 15, 2024 CHOP
Wednesday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 1,729,454 trades
Summary
On Wednesday, May 15, 2024, Bitcoin exploded +7.5% higher to $66,206. Net flow: +36 BTC — buyers had the edge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
The big players were active all day. 24 bars of outsized trades (6.7σ peak) from 00:21–23:49 UTC, adding 33 BTC of buying pressure on top of the broader buying flow.
From $61,319 to $66,444 — a 8.3% range that forced both bulls and bears to respect the volatility.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Morning and afternoon traded like two different markets. Sellers led early (-735 BTC), buyers dominated late (+771 BTC).
Across sessions: Asia +1.00%, Europe +3.14%, US +3.21% — with US doing the heavy lifting.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | 1.00% | -565 BTC | 48% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | 3.14% | 537 BTC | 46% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | 3.21% | 64 BTC | 5% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
A statistical outlier: +7.52% return sits at +3.2σ from the chop-regime average of +0.10%. Days like this are rare within this regime.
This was near the start of a chop regime (day 2), with the bear regime barely in the rearview mirror.
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