BTC Flow Analysis — March 16, 2025 BEAR
Sunday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 2,767,947 trades
Summary
March 16, 2025: Bitcoin fell 2.1%. The 584 BTC of net selling flow at $82,575 told a clear story — sellers were in charge.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
Sustained large-player selling throughout the day. 31 bars with trade sizes 3σ+ above normal (peak: 6.9σ), spread across 00:17–17:05 UTC. The 44 BTC of whale flow reinforced the day's selling bias.
A clean, flow-driven day. The 0.96 correlation between cumulative flow and price means selling pressure was the dominant force — no hidden passive flow muddying the signal.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Most of the action happened during Europe hours, which accounted for 83% of the day's net flow (610 BTC selling). The rest of the day was a footnote.
A tale of two halves — sellers pushed 701 BTC through the morning, then buyers flipped the script with 116 BTC in the afternoon.
Breaking it down by session: Asia -0.08%, Europe -1.99%, US -0.03%. Europe stood out.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | -0.08% | -49 BTC | 7% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | -1.99% | -610 BTC | 83% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | -0.03% | 75 BTC | 10% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
The bear regime was running out of road — 2 day(s) before the market shifted to chop. The transition was already underway in hindsight.
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