BTC Flow Analysis — September 11, 2025 CHOP
Thursday · Minute-level BTC order flow from Binance · 2,166,359 trades
Summary
Bitcoin ground out a +1.34% gain on Thursday, September 11, 2025, closing at $115,483 as sellers controlled aggregate flow with 188 BTC of net pressure.
BTC price (blue) and trading volume (cyan bars) per minute. Session shading: Asia (gold 00-08 UTC), Europe (green 08-14), US (red 14-00).
Flow Analysis
Flow said sell, price said buy. The -0.46 correlation between cumulative flow and return tells the story: someone was absorbing the selling quietly while price rose +1.34%.
Large players were on the wrong side — or the patient side. 22 bars of outsized trade sizes (peak 6.1σ) showed net buying, but price moved against them. Either they were accumulating into weakness or got caught.
Flow reversed midday. The first 12 hours belonged to buyers (+85 BTC), but sellers erased that and then some (-273 BTC) in the back half.
This was day 12 of consecutive net selling. Multi-day streaks reflect sustained conviction, not noise.
Cumulative buying pressure (purple, left axis) vs cumulative price return (yellow, right axis). When these diverge, flow and price are telling different stories.
Session Breakdown
Session returns: Asia +0.11%, Europe +0.48%, US +0.74%. US led the move.
| Session | Hours (UTC) | Return | Net Flow | Flow Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 00:00 - 08:00 | 0.11% | 223 BTC | 35% |
| Europe | 08:00 - 14:00 | 0.48% | -360 BTC | 57% |
| US | 14:00 - 00:00 | 0.74% | -51 BTC | 8% |
Per-minute volume split by aggressor side. Green = actively bought at the asking price. Red = actively sold at the bid price.
Regime Context
This day sat within a chop regime. The +1.34% return tracked the regime average of +0.10%.
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